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Projecting US Primary Care Physician Workforce Needs: 2010-2025

Stephen M. Petterson, PhD; Winston R. Liaw, MD, MPH; Robert L. Phillips, Jr, MD, MSPH; David L. Rabin, MD, MPH; 
David S. Meyers; Andrew W. Bazemore, MD, MPH.

Researchers project the United States will need 52,000 additional primary care physicians by 2025 — a 25 percent increase in the current workforce — to address the expected increases in demand due to population growth, aging, and insurance expansion following passage of the Affordable Care Act. Analyzing nationally representative data, the researchers conclude population growth will be the single greatest driver of increased primary care utilization, requiring approximately 33,000 additional primary care physicians by 2025, while 10,000 additional physicians will be needed to accommodate population aging. Insurance expansion, they estimate, will require approximately 8,000 additional primary care physicians, a 3 percent increase in the current workforce.

Petterson Stephen M., PhD, Liaw Winston R., MD, MPH, Phillips Jr, Robert L., MD, MSPH, Rabin, David L., MD, MPH,
Meyers, David S.; Bazemore, Andrew W., MD, MPH. Projecting US Primary Care Physician Workforce Needs: 2010-2025. Ann Fam Med. 2012;10(6):503-509. 

November 2012