Primary care physician (PCP) workforce shortages challenge the long-term viability of U.S. primary care. Studies of the future need for primary care providers indicate that demographic and policy trends will only strain a workforce already struggling to meet national needs. Other analyses document geographic maldistribution of PCPs, within states as well as across states. Addressing physician shortages and maldistribution requires analysis and action on the state level.
To this end, the Robert Graham Center expanded the approach used for national projections to all 50 states. Specifically, using state and national data, we project to 2030 the state PCP workforce necessary to maintain current primary care utilization rates, accounting for increased demand due to aging, population growth, and an increasingly insured population due to the Affordable Care Act.